Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico     

José J. Hernández Ayala  David Keellings  Peter R. Waylen  Corene J. Matyas 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2103-2119

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震前后地震活动性          下载免费PDF全文

侯金欣  王宝善 《地球物理学报》2017,60(4):1446-1456

2014年 8月3日在云南省鲁甸县发生M_S6.5地震，造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.关于鲁甸地震的起因，特别是鲁甸地震与溪洛渡水库之间的关系存在一些争议.分析中强地震前后地震活动性的变化可以为判断主震起源提供一定的依据.然而，由于鲁甸地震震中附近固定台站数目少、台站距离震中远及主震后尾波干扰等因素的影响，会造成地震目录的缺失，从而可能影响地震活动性的可靠分析.为了获得更加完备的地震目录，本文采用模板匹配方法对鲁甸地震前后小地震进行了搜索和识别.以台网目录中的541个事件作为模板，在主震之前33天到主震后5天的连续波形中识别出991个未在目录中列出的地震，使余震的完备震级从1.8降低到1.3.根据检测目录得到主震前33天内的b值为1.04±0.18，余震的b值在震后5天内由0.5左右逐渐上升至0.9附近并保持稳定；根据2009年到主震发生前的台网目录得到该区域的背景b值为0.93±0.04.即鲁甸地震前后区域地震活动b值均与背景b值接近，这与典型水库诱发的中强震具有的b值特征不相符.同时通过进一步分析台网目录，未发现溪洛渡水库蓄水前后研究区域内的地震活动性存在明显变化，这也与典型水库诱发地震区域的地震活动性特征不相符.综合以上结果，我们认为2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震不具有典型水库诱发地震的特征.  相似文献   

Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic characterization of rainfall and throughfall in four South Korean cool temperate forests     

Mukesh Kumar Gautam  Yeon-Sik Bong  Byeong-Yeol Song  Jong-Sik Ryu 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(12):2025-2034

Understanding the isotopic composition of precipitation in a forested catchment is critical for ecohydrological studies. Changes in the water isotopes of rainfall were assessed during its passage through the canopy in throughfall, and the effect of different forest stands on the isotope composition of throughfall. In a cool temperate forest in Korea, rainfall and throughfall samples collected under Pinus densiflora (red pine), Castanea crenata (chestnut), Robinia pseudoacacia (black locust) and mixed stands (mix of these three species) were analysed for oxygen and hydrogen isotopes. Throughfall δ¹⁸O and δD were enriched compared to rainfall. A difference of δ¹⁸O and δD among throughfall may be related to the difference in interception–storage capacity of different species due to dissimilar canopy characteristics. Since isotopic composition of throughfall and rainfall are different due to canopy isotopic effects, use of rainfall isotopic signatures for ecohydrological studies in forested ecosystem can lead to biases.  相似文献   

新疆天山地区的波速比异常分析     

张琳琳  高朝军 《中国地震研究》2017,31(1):39-50

Based on the seismic observation report data provided by the Xinjiang Digital Seismic Network from 2009 to 2014,we calculate the wave velocity ratio and its background value for medium and small earthquakes by using the multi-station method in Tianshan,Xinjiang.This paper analyzes the variation of the wave velocity ratio disturbance value to highlight the abnormal,and also back-traces 7 moderate earthquakes at the research area.The results show that:(1)the background value of the wave velocity ratio is almost 1.70,the wave velocity ratio obviously decreases in the middle-eastern part of Tianshan and the region near the Puchang fault;(2)the wave velocity ratio disturbance value is mostly low in the epicenter before four earthquakes of M≥5.0 from 2011 to 2013 in the study area;(3)before 7 moderate strong earthquakes,the earthquake events with low value of the wave velocity ratio account for over 60% of corresponding total events near the epicenters,and the low value of the wave velocity ratio is relatively obvious before moderate earthquakes.  相似文献   

2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7.0地震序列分析     

臧阳  孟令媛  周龙泉  韩颜颜  宫悦 《中国地震》2017,33(4):480-492

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生M_S7.0地震，该地震发生在巴颜喀喇块体的东北边界，震中区域构造条件复杂，是巴颜喀喇块体北侧左旋走滑环境向东侧逆冲挤压环境过渡的位置，附近地区历史强震较多。九寨沟地震是一次主-余型地震，余震活动水平较弱，主震发生后短时间内M_L≥4.0余震的“等待时间”存在异常，震后较长时间余震活动恢复到正常状态，序列h值、余震视应力等符合主-余型序列特征。序列b值为0.84，G-R关系推测序列最大余震的震级约为M_L5.4（M_S5.0），8月9日发生的M_S4.8地震是目前该序列的最强余震。通过与1970年以来附近地区7级左右地震序列的对比认为，九寨沟地震与1976年松潘-平武2次7.2级地震序列在余震空间位置、发震构造和震源机制等方面存在较大差异，因此，不具备发育为震群型序列的条件。九寨沟地震主震视应力为0.36～0.38MPa，属于应力下调模型，序列余震的平均视应力水平接近龙门山断裂带附近中小地震的平均背景水平。  相似文献   

CT及MRI检查对胰腺囊性病变的诊断价值          下载免费PDF全文

吴延春  刘垚 《CT理论与应用研究》2017,26(5):591-597

目的:通过病理对照分析,探讨CT、MRI对胰腺囊性病变的诊断价值。方法:选取我院2013年1月至2016年12月收治的胰腺囊性病变患者60例,所有患者均分别采用CT、MRI检查,依据检查方法分为CT组和MRI组,对两组患者检查结果和病理结果比较、检查时间进行统计分析。结果:MRI诊断假性囊肿、真性囊肿、囊腺瘤、囊腺癌、胰腺导管内乳头状粘液瘤、癌变胰岛细胞瘤、实性假乳头状瘤与病理符合率分别为100.0%(13/13)、100.0%(16/16)、91.7%(11/12)、100.0%(7/7)、100.0%(6/6)、100.0%(3/3)、100.0%(3/3),CT诊断与病理符合率分别为84.6%(11/13)、93.8%(15/16)、100.0%(12/12)、85.7%(6/7)、83.3%(5/6)、66.7%(2/3)、100.0%(3/3);MRI诊断与病理符合率略高于CT诊断,差异不显著(P>0.05)。MRI组患者的检查时间显著长于CT组(P<0.01)。结论:CT与MRI对胰腺囊性病变的诊断率均较高,虽然MRI具有较长的检查时间,但其能够多方位成像,同时能够将更多的信息提供给临床对囊性成分的分析,特别是较为敏感的出血及囊性病变的大小、数量、范围、境界、成份、性质等,因此二者均具有一定特征性,建议临床结合应用。   相似文献   

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

Stress‐dependent hardening and failure surfaces of dry sand     

W. Ehlers  O. Avci 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(8):787-809

During several triaxial compression experiments on plastic hardening, softening, and failure properties of dense sand specimens, it was found on various stress paths that the size of the failure surface was not constant. Instead, it changed depending on the current state of hydrostatic pressure. This finding is in contrast to the standard opinion consisting of the fact that the failure surface remains constant, once it has been reached during an experiment or in situ. In general, the behaviour of cohesionless granular‐material‐like sand is somehow characterised in between fluid and solid, where the solid behaviour results from the angle of internal friction and the confining pressure. Although the friction angle is an intrinsic material property, the confining pressure varies with the boundary conditions, thus defining different solid properties like plastic hardening, softening, and also failure. Based on our findings, it was the goal of the present contribution to introduce an improved setting for the plastic strain hardening and softening behaviour including the newly found yield properties at the limit state. For the identification of the material parameters, a complete triaxial experimental analysis of the tested sand is given. The overall elasto‐plasticity concept is validated by numerical computations of several laboratory foundation‐ and slope‐failure experiments. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the standard concept of a constant failure surface, where the corresponding yield surfaces are understood as contours of equivalent plastic work or plastic strain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluating coastal scenery using fuzzy logic: Application at selected sites in Western Black Sea coastal region of Turkey   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ay?en Ergin  Fatma ?ahin 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(7):583-591

Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.  相似文献   

大坝变形监测数据的小波分析处理方法     

万程辉  欧阳平 《北京测绘》2010,(1):32-34

引入小波分析方法对大坝变形监测数据的处理,实现了对离散型的变形数据的尺度分解,对变形趋势的分析。并且对变形数据在滤波、消噪等方面,对分解层次中的偶然误差特性分析,以及阀值的选取方法进行了比较,表明利用小波变换的方法对变形数据的分析处理是有效、可行的。  相似文献